Mbia Inc Stock Chance of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 4.15
| MBI Stock | USD 6.38 0.11 1.69% |
Closest to current price MBIA long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
MBIA |
MBIA Target Price Odds to finish below 4.15
The tendency of MBIA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 4.15 or more in 90 days |
| 6.38 | 90 days | 4.15 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of MBIA to drop to $ 4.15 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This MBIA Inc probability density function shows the probability of MBIA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of MBIA Inc price to stay between $ 4.15 and its current price of $6.38 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.34 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.32 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, MBIA will likely underperform. Additionally MBIA Inc has an alpha of 0.0072, implying that it can generate a 0.007173 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). MBIA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for MBIA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as MBIA Inc. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of MBIA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
MBIA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. MBIA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the MBIA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold MBIA Inc, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of MBIA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.32 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.24 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
MBIA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of MBIA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for MBIA Inc can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| MBIA Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 6 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (484 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 25 M. | |
| MBIA Inc has about 50 M in cash with (195 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.13, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: MBIA Inc. Investor Conference Call to Discuss First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Scheduled for Friday, May 10 at 800 A.M. Eastern Time |
MBIA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of MBIA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential MBIA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. MBIA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 48.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
MBIA Technical Analysis
MBIA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. MBIA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of MBIA Inc. In general, you should focus on analyzing MBIA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
MBIA Predictive Forecast Models
MBIA's time-series forecasting models is one of many MBIA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary MBIA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about MBIA Inc
Checking the ongoing alerts about MBIA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for MBIA Inc help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| MBIA Inc has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 6 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (484 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 25 M. | |
| MBIA Inc has about 50 M in cash with (195 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 12.13, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from businesswire.com: MBIA Inc. Investor Conference Call to Discuss First Quarter 2024 Financial Results Scheduled for Friday, May 10 at 800 A.M. Eastern Time |
Check out MBIA Backtesting, MBIA Valuation, MBIA Correlation, MBIA Hype Analysis, MBIA Volatility, MBIA History as well as MBIA Performance. Note that the MBIA Inc information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other MBIA's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for MBIA Stock analysis
When running MBIA's price analysis, check to measure MBIA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy MBIA is operating at the current time. Most of MBIA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of MBIA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move MBIA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of MBIA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is MBIA's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of MBIA. If investors know MBIA will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about MBIA listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (10.03) | Revenue Per Share 0.124 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 1.571 | Return On Assets (0.06) |
The market value of MBIA Inc is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of MBIA that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of MBIA's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is MBIA's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because MBIA's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect MBIA's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between MBIA's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if MBIA is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, MBIA's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.