Direxion Daily Junior Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Under 37.10
| JNUG Etf | USD 43.74 0.25 0.57% |
Closest to current price Direxion long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Direxion |
Direxion Daily Target Price Odds to finish below 37.10
The tendency of Direxion Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 37.10 or more in 90 days |
| 43.74 | 90 days | 37.10 | about 55.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Direxion Daily to drop to $ 37.10 or more in 90 days from now is about 55.42 (This Direxion Daily Junior probability density function shows the probability of Direxion Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Direxion Daily Junior price to stay between $ 37.10 and its current price of $43.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 34.41 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Direxion Daily has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Direxion Daily average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Direxion Daily Junior will be expected to be much smaller as well. Moreover Direxion Daily Junior has an alpha of 1.0668, implying that it can generate a 1.07 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Direxion Daily Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Direxion Daily
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Direxion Daily Junior. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Direxion Daily's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Direxion Daily Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Direxion Daily is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Direxion Daily's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Direxion Daily Junior, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Direxion Daily within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 1.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.83 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.24 |
Direxion Daily Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Direxion Daily for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Direxion Daily Junior can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Direxion Daily appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| This fund created-44.0 ten year return of -44.0% | |
| Direxion Daily retains most of the assets under management (AUM) in different types of exotic instruments. |
Direxion Daily Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Direxion Etf often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Direxion Daily's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Direxion Daily's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Direxion Daily Technical Analysis
Direxion Daily's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Direxion Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Direxion Daily Junior. In general, you should focus on analyzing Direxion Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Direxion Daily Predictive Forecast Models
Direxion Daily's time-series forecasting models is one of many Direxion Daily's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Direxion Daily's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.