Itochu Stock Chance of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Over 46.94
| ITOCF Stock | USD 48.34 1.52 3.25% |
ITOCHU |
ITOCHU Target Price Odds to finish over 46.94
The tendency of ITOCHU Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 46.94 in 90 days |
| 48.34 | 90 days | 46.94 | about 15.17 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ITOCHU to stay above $ 46.94 in 90 days from now is about 15.17 (This ITOCHU probability density function shows the probability of ITOCHU Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ITOCHU price to stay between $ 46.94 and its current price of $48.34 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.82 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon ITOCHU has a beta of 0.97. This usually indicates ITOCHU market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, ITOCHU is expected to follow. Additionally ITOCHU has an alpha of 0.2181, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ITOCHU Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for ITOCHU
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ITOCHU. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ITOCHU's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ITOCHU Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ITOCHU is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ITOCHU's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ITOCHU, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ITOCHU within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.97 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.09 |
ITOCHU Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ITOCHU Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ITOCHU's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ITOCHU's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 B |
ITOCHU Technical Analysis
ITOCHU's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ITOCHU Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ITOCHU. In general, you should focus on analyzing ITOCHU Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ITOCHU Predictive Forecast Models
ITOCHU's time-series forecasting models is one of many ITOCHU's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ITOCHU's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards ITOCHU in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, ITOCHU's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from ITOCHU options trading.
Other Information on Investing in ITOCHU Pink Sheet
ITOCHU financial ratios help investors to determine whether ITOCHU Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in ITOCHU with respect to the benefits of owning ITOCHU security.