Hormel Foods Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 34.57
| HRL Stock | USD 30.85 0.06 0.19% |
Closest to current price Hormel long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Hormel |
Hormel Foods Target Price Odds to finish over 34.57
The tendency of Hormel Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 34.57 or more in 90 days |
| 30.85 | 90 days | 34.57 | about 48.92 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Hormel Foods to move over $ 34.57 or more in 90 days from now is about 48.92 (This Hormel Foods probability density function shows the probability of Hormel Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Hormel Foods price to stay between its current price of $ 30.85 and $ 34.57 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.02 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Hormel Foods has a beta of 0.29. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Hormel Foods average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Hormel Foods will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Hormel Foods has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Hormel Foods Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Hormel Foods
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Hormel Foods. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Hormel Foods' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Hormel Foods Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Hormel Foods is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Hormel Foods' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Hormel Foods, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Hormel Foods within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.11 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.08 |
Hormel Foods Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Hormel Foods for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Hormel Foods can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Hormel Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hormel Foods has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of May 2024 Hormel Foods paid $ 0.2825 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Hormel Foods Corporation Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Hormel Foods Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Hormel Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Hormel Foods' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Hormel Foods' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 549 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 753.2 M |
Hormel Foods Technical Analysis
Hormel Foods' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Hormel Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Hormel Foods. In general, you should focus on analyzing Hormel Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Hormel Foods Predictive Forecast Models
Hormel Foods' time-series forecasting models is one of many Hormel Foods' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Hormel Foods' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Hormel Foods
Checking the ongoing alerts about Hormel Foods for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Hormel Foods help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Hormel Foods generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Hormel Foods has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 89.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 15th of May 2024 Hormel Foods paid $ 0.2825 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from insidermonkey.com: Hormel Foods Corporation Q2 2024 Earnings Call Transcript |
Additional Information and Resources on Investing in Hormel Stock
When determining whether Hormel Foods is a strong investment it is important to analyze Hormel Foods' competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Hormel Foods' future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Hormel Stock, refer to the following important reports:Check out Hormel Foods Backtesting, Hormel Foods Valuation, Hormel Foods Correlation, Hormel Foods Hype Analysis, Hormel Foods Volatility, Hormel Foods History as well as Hormel Foods Performance. For more information on how to buy Hormel Stock please use our How to buy in Hormel Stock guide.You can also try the My Watchlist Analysis module to analyze my current watchlist and to refresh optimization strategy. Macroaxis watchlist is based on self-learning algorithm to remember stocks you like.
Is Packaged Foods & Meats space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Hormel Foods. If investors know Hormel will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Hormel Foods listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.004 | Dividend Share 1.108 | Earnings Share 1.4 | Revenue Per Share 22.203 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.009 |
The market value of Hormel Foods is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Hormel that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Hormel Foods' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Hormel Foods' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Hormel Foods' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Hormel Foods' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Hormel Foods' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Hormel Foods is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Hormel Foods' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.