Genius Sports Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 7.96
| GENI Stock | USD 5.45 0.15 2.83% |
Closest to current price Genius long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Genius |
Genius Sports Target Price Odds to finish over 7.96
The tendency of Genius Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 7.96 or more in 90 days |
| 5.45 | 90 days | 7.96 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Genius Sports to move over $ 7.96 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Genius Sports probability density function shows the probability of Genius Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Genius Sports price to stay between its current price of $ 5.45 and $ 7.96 at the end of the 90-day period is about 73.5 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Genius Sports has a beta of 0.41. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Genius Sports average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Genius Sports will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Genius Sports has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Genius Sports Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Genius Sports
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Genius Sports. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Genius Sports' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Genius Sports Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Genius Sports is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Genius Sports' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Genius Sports, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Genius Sports within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.56 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.41 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.79 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.22 |
Genius Sports Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Genius Sports for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Genius Sports can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Genius Sports generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 412.98 M. Net Loss for the year was (85.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.86 M. | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Genius Sports First Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.11 loss per share |
Genius Sports Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Genius Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Genius Sports' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Genius Sports' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 225.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 100.3 M |
Genius Sports Technical Analysis
Genius Sports' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Genius Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Genius Sports. In general, you should focus on analyzing Genius Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Genius Sports Predictive Forecast Models
Genius Sports' time-series forecasting models is one of many Genius Sports' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Genius Sports' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Genius Sports
Checking the ongoing alerts about Genius Sports for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Genius Sports help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Genius Sports generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 412.98 M. Net Loss for the year was (85.53 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 2.86 M. | |
| About 63.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Genius Sports First Quarter 2024 Earnings US0.11 loss per share |
Check out Genius Sports Backtesting, Genius Sports Valuation, Genius Sports Correlation, Genius Sports Hype Analysis, Genius Sports Volatility, Genius Sports History as well as Genius Sports Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Genius Stock please use our How to Invest in Genius Sports guide.You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Complementary Tools for Genius Stock analysis
When running Genius Sports' price analysis, check to measure Genius Sports' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Genius Sports is operating at the current time. Most of Genius Sports' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Genius Sports' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Genius Sports' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Genius Sports to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Genius Sports' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Genius Sports. If investors know Genius will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Genius Sports listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.38) | Revenue Per Share 1.828 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.207 | Return On Assets (0.06) | Return On Equity (0.15) |
The market value of Genius Sports is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Genius that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Genius Sports' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Genius Sports' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Genius Sports' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Genius Sports' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Genius Sports' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Genius Sports is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Genius Sports' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.