Global Indemnity Plc Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.38
| GBLI Stock | USD 32.17 0.48 1.51% |
Global |
Global Indemnity Target Price Odds to finish below 31.38
The tendency of Global Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.38 or more in 90 days |
| 32.17 | 90 days | 31.38 | about 74.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Global Indemnity to drop to $ 31.38 or more in 90 days from now is about 74.76 (This Global Indemnity PLC probability density function shows the probability of Global Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Global Indemnity PLC price to stay between $ 31.38 and its current price of $32.17 at the end of the 90-day period is about 12.58 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Global Indemnity PLC has a beta of -0.53. This usually indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Global Indemnity are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Global Indemnity PLC is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Global Indemnity PLC has an alpha of 0.2238, implying that it can generate a 0.22 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Global Indemnity Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Global Indemnity
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Global Indemnity PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Global Indemnity's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Global Indemnity Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Global Indemnity is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Global Indemnity's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Global Indemnity PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Global Indemnity within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.22 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.65 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Global Indemnity Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Global Indemnity for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Global Indemnity PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Global Indemnity PLC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 28th of March 2024 Global Indemnity paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Acquisition by Seth Gersch of 4106 shares of Global Indemnity at 33.83 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Global Indemnity Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Global Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Global Indemnity's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Global Indemnity's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 13.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.3 B |
Global Indemnity Technical Analysis
Global Indemnity's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Global Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Global Indemnity PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Global Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Global Indemnity Predictive Forecast Models
Global Indemnity's time-series forecasting models is one of many Global Indemnity's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Global Indemnity's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Global Indemnity PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Global Indemnity for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Global Indemnity PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Global Indemnity PLC has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 28th of March 2024 Global Indemnity paid $ 0.35 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from simplywall.st: Acquisition by Seth Gersch of 4106 shares of Global Indemnity at 33.83 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out Global Indemnity Backtesting, Global Indemnity Valuation, Global Indemnity Correlation, Global Indemnity Hype Analysis, Global Indemnity Volatility, Global Indemnity History as well as Global Indemnity Performance. You can also try the Premium Stories module to follow Macroaxis premium stories from verified contributors across different equity types, categories and coverage scope.
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When running Global Indemnity's price analysis, check to measure Global Indemnity's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Global Indemnity is operating at the current time. Most of Global Indemnity's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Global Indemnity's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Global Indemnity's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Global Indemnity to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Global Indemnity's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Global Indemnity. If investors know Global will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Global Indemnity listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.824 | Dividend Share 1 | Earnings Share 2.48 | Revenue Per Share 36.215 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.26) |
The market value of Global Indemnity PLC is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Global that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Global Indemnity's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Global Indemnity's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Global Indemnity's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Global Indemnity's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Global Indemnity's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Global Indemnity is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Global Indemnity's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.