Five Point Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.23
| FPH Stock | USD 3.11 0.07 2.20% |
Closest to current price Five long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Five |
Five Point Target Price Odds to finish over 5.23
The tendency of Five Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.23 or more in 90 days |
| 3.11 | 90 days | 5.23 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Five Point to move over $ 5.23 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Five Point Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Five Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Five Point Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 3.11 and $ 5.23 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.4 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Five Point has a beta of 0.36. This usually indicates as returns on the market go up, Five Point average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Five Point Holdings will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Five Point Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Five Point Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Five Point
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Five Point Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Five Point's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Five Point Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Five Point is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Five Point's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Five Point Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Five Point within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Five Point Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Five Point for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Five Point Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Five Point Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Five Point Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Five Point Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Luxor Capital Group sells shares in Five Point Holdings worth 17,670 |
Five Point Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Five Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Five Point's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Five Point's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 145.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 354.8 M |
Five Point Technical Analysis
Five Point's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Five Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Five Point Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Five Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Five Point Predictive Forecast Models
Five Point's time-series forecasting models is one of many Five Point's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Five Point's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Five Point Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about Five Point for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Five Point Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Five Point Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Five Point Holdings is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Five Point Holdings has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| About 64.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Luxor Capital Group sells shares in Five Point Holdings worth 17,670 |
Check out Five Point Backtesting, Five Point Valuation, Five Point Correlation, Five Point Hype Analysis, Five Point Volatility, Five Point History as well as Five Point Performance. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Five Stock analysis
When running Five Point's price analysis, check to measure Five Point's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Five Point is operating at the current time. Most of Five Point's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Five Point's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Five Point's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Five Point to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Five Point's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Five Point. If investors know Five will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Five Point listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 3.978 | Earnings Share 0.86 | Revenue Per Share 3.133 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.743 | Return On Assets 0.0065 |
The market value of Five Point Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Five that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Five Point's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Five Point's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Five Point's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Five Point's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Five Point's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Five Point is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Five Point's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.