Fuelcell Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 0.05
| FCEL Stock | USD 0.93 0.06 6.90% |
Closest to current price FuelCell long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
FuelCell |
FuelCell Energy Target Price Odds to finish below 0.05
The tendency of FuelCell Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days |
| 0.93 | 90 days | 0.05 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FuelCell Energy to drop to $ 0.05 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This FuelCell Energy probability density function shows the probability of FuelCell Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FuelCell Energy price to stay between $ 0.05 and its current price of $0.93 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.67 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.48 . This usually indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, FuelCell Energy will likely underperform. Additionally FuelCell Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. FuelCell Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FuelCell Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FuelCell Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FuelCell Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FuelCell Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FuelCell Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FuelCell Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FuelCell Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FuelCell Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.46 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 3.48 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.07 |
FuelCell Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FuelCell Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FuelCell Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FuelCell Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FuelCell Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FuelCell Energy has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| FuelCell Energy has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 123.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (108.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.16 M). | |
| FuelCell Energy currently holds about 456.48 M in cash with (140.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Tyrone Michael Jordan Appointed to FuelCell Energys Board of Directors |
FuelCell Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FuelCell Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FuelCell Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FuelCell Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 419.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 353.7 M |
FuelCell Energy Technical Analysis
FuelCell Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FuelCell Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FuelCell Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing FuelCell Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FuelCell Energy Predictive Forecast Models
FuelCell Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many FuelCell Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FuelCell Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FuelCell Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about FuelCell Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FuelCell Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FuelCell Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FuelCell Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FuelCell Energy has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| FuelCell Energy has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 123.39 M. Net Loss for the year was (108.06 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (8.16 M). | |
| FuelCell Energy currently holds about 456.48 M in cash with (140.25 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.13, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Tyrone Michael Jordan Appointed to FuelCell Energys Board of Directors |
Check out FuelCell Energy Backtesting, FuelCell Energy Valuation, FuelCell Energy Correlation, FuelCell Energy Hype Analysis, FuelCell Energy Volatility, FuelCell Energy History as well as FuelCell Energy Performance. For more information on how to buy FuelCell Stock please use our How to buy in FuelCell Stock guide.Note that the FuelCell Energy information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other FuelCell Energy's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Options Analysis module to analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios.
Complementary Tools for FuelCell Stock analysis
When running FuelCell Energy's price analysis, check to measure FuelCell Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy FuelCell Energy is operating at the current time. Most of FuelCell Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of FuelCell Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move FuelCell Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of FuelCell Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is FuelCell Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FuelCell Energy. If investors know FuelCell will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FuelCell Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.26) | Revenue Per Share 0.239 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.55) | Return On Assets (0.11) | Return On Equity (0.18) |
The market value of FuelCell Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FuelCell that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FuelCell Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FuelCell Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FuelCell Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FuelCell Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FuelCell Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FuelCell Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FuelCell Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.