Evolv Technologies Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 3.92
| EVLV Stock | USD 4.02 0.14 3.61% |
Closest to current price Evolv long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Evolv |
Evolv Technologies Target Price Odds to finish over 3.92
The tendency of Evolv Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 3.92 in 90 days |
| 4.02 | 90 days | 3.92 | about 71.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Evolv Technologies to stay above $ 3.92 in 90 days from now is about 71.61 (This Evolv Technologies Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Evolv Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Evolv Technologies price to stay between $ 3.92 and its current price of $4.02 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.33 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.89 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Evolv Technologies will likely underperform. Additionally Evolv Technologies Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Evolv Technologies Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Evolv Technologies
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Evolv Technologies. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Evolv Technologies' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Evolv Technologies Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Evolv Technologies is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Evolv Technologies' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Evolv Technologies Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Evolv Technologies within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.56 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Evolv Technologies Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Evolv Technologies for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Evolv Technologies can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Evolv Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolv Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (106.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.73 M. | |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings currently holds about 218.5 M in cash with (9.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.51. | |
| Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Evolv Technologies Sued by Investors After Disclosing SEC Investigation, BBC Report Disputing Companys Claims - Hagens Berman |
Evolv Technologies Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Evolv Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Evolv Technologies' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Evolv Technologies' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 149.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 118.7 M |
Evolv Technologies Technical Analysis
Evolv Technologies' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Evolv Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Evolv Technologies Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Evolv Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Evolv Technologies Predictive Forecast Models
Evolv Technologies' time-series forecasting models is one of many Evolv Technologies' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Evolv Technologies' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Evolv Technologies
Checking the ongoing alerts about Evolv Technologies for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Evolv Technologies help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Evolv Technologies generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Evolv Technologies has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 80.42 M. Net Loss for the year was (106.25 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.73 M. | |
| Evolv Technologies Holdings currently holds about 218.5 M in cash with (9.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.51. | |
| Roughly 17.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders | |
| Latest headline from benzinga.com: Evolv Technologies Sued by Investors After Disclosing SEC Investigation, BBC Report Disputing Companys Claims - Hagens Berman |
Check out Evolv Technologies Backtesting, Evolv Technologies Valuation, Evolv Technologies Correlation, Evolv Technologies Hype Analysis, Evolv Technologies Volatility, Evolv Technologies History as well as Evolv Technologies Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Suggestion module to get suggestions outside of your existing asset allocation including your own model portfolios.
Complementary Tools for Evolv Stock analysis
When running Evolv Technologies' price analysis, check to measure Evolv Technologies' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Evolv Technologies is operating at the current time. Most of Evolv Technologies' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Evolv Technologies' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Evolv Technologies' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Evolv Technologies to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Evolv Technologies' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Evolv Technologies. If investors know Evolv will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Evolv Technologies listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.71) | Revenue Per Share 0.539 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.045 | Return On Assets (0.17) | Return On Equity (0.57) |
The market value of Evolv Technologies is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Evolv that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Evolv Technologies' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Evolv Technologies' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Evolv Technologies' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Evolv Technologies' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Evolv Technologies' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Evolv Technologies is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Evolv Technologies' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.