Enphase Energy Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 110.47
| ENPH Stock | USD 113.85 1.92 1.72% |
Closest to current price Enphase long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Enphase |
Enphase Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 110.47
The tendency of Enphase Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 110.47 in 90 days |
| 113.85 | 90 days | 110.47 | about 79.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Enphase Energy to stay above $ 110.47 in 90 days from now is about 79.57 (This Enphase Energy probability density function shows the probability of Enphase Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Enphase Energy price to stay between $ 110.47 and its current price of $113.85 at the end of the 90-day period is about 23.54 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.9 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Enphase Energy will likely underperform. Additionally Enphase Energy has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Enphase Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Enphase Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Enphase Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Enphase Energy's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Enphase Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Enphase Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Enphase Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Enphase Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Enphase Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0084 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.90 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.04 |
Enphase Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Enphase Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Enphase Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Enphase Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Enphase Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Enphase Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Enphase Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Enphase Energy director Steven J. Gomo sells 4.85 million in stock |
Enphase Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Enphase Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Enphase Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Enphase Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 143.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.7 B |
Enphase Energy Technical Analysis
Enphase Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Enphase Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Enphase Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Enphase Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Enphase Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Enphase Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Enphase Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Enphase Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Enphase Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Enphase Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Enphase Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Enphase Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Enphase Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Enphase Energy is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Enphase Energy has a strong financial position based on the latest SEC filings | |
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from investing.com: Enphase Energy director Steven J. Gomo sells 4.85 million in stock |
Check out Enphase Energy Backtesting, Enphase Energy Valuation, Enphase Energy Correlation, Enphase Energy Hype Analysis, Enphase Energy Volatility, Enphase Energy History as well as Enphase Energy Performance. For more detail on how to invest in Enphase Stock please use our How to Invest in Enphase Energy guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for Enphase Stock analysis
When running Enphase Energy's price analysis, check to measure Enphase Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Enphase Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Enphase Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Enphase Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Enphase Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Enphase Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Enphase Energy's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Enphase Energy. If investors know Enphase will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Enphase Energy listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.87) | Earnings Share 1.94 | Revenue Per Share 13.425 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.64) | Return On Assets 0.0503 |
The market value of Enphase Energy is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Enphase that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Enphase Energy's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Enphase Energy's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Enphase Energy's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Enphase Energy's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Enphase Energy's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Enphase Energy is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Enphase Energy's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.