Despegar Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.95
| DESP Stock | USD 14.80 0.18 1.23% |
Closest to current price Despegar long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Despegar |
Despegar Corp Target Price Odds to finish below 9.95
The tendency of Despegar Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.95 or more in 90 days |
| 14.80 | 90 days | 9.95 | about 5.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Despegar Corp to drop to $ 9.95 or more in 90 days from now is about 5.81 (This Despegar Corp probability density function shows the probability of Despegar Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Despegar Corp price to stay between $ 9.95 and its current price of $14.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 86.46 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.12 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Despegar Corp will likely underperform. Additionally Despegar Corp has an alpha of 0.8693, implying that it can generate a 0.87 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Despegar Corp Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Despegar Corp
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Despegar Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Despegar Corp's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Despegar Corp Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Despegar Corp is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Despegar Corp's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Despegar Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Despegar Corp within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.87 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 2.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.21 |
Despegar Corp Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Despegar Corp for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Despegar Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Despegar Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Despegar Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Despegar Corp currently holds 53.8 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.86, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Despegar Corp has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Despegar Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 68.0% of Despegar Corp shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Despegar.com Reaches New 52-Week High at 15.63 - Defense World |
Despegar Corp Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Despegar Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Despegar Corp's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Despegar Corp's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 77.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 240.5 M |
Despegar Corp Technical Analysis
Despegar Corp's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Despegar Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Despegar Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Despegar Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Despegar Corp Predictive Forecast Models
Despegar Corp's time-series forecasting models is one of many Despegar Corp's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Despegar Corp's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Despegar Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Despegar Corp for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Despegar Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Despegar Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Despegar Corp is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Despegar Corp currently holds 53.8 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.86, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Despegar Corp has a current ratio of 0.88, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about Despegar Corp's use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| About 68.0% of Despegar Corp shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Despegar.com Reaches New 52-Week High at 15.63 - Defense World |
Additional Tools for Despegar Stock Analysis
When running Despegar Corp's price analysis, check to measure Despegar Corp's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Despegar Corp is operating at the current time. Most of Despegar Corp's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Despegar Corp's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Despegar Corp's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Despegar Corp to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.