Aquila Tax Free Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 9.81
| COTFX Fund | USD 9.69 0.02 0.21% |
Aquila |
Aquila Tax-free Target Price Odds to finish over 9.81
The tendency of Aquila Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 9.81 or more in 90 days |
| 9.69 | 90 days | 9.81 | about 30.9 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aquila Tax-free to move over $ 9.81 or more in 90 days from now is about 30.9 (This Aquila Tax Free Fund probability density function shows the probability of Aquila Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aquila Tax Free price to stay between its current price of $ 9.69 and $ 9.81 at the end of the 90-day period is about 68.46 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Aquila Tax Free Fund has a beta of -0.0024 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aquila Tax-free are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aquila Tax Free Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aquila Tax Free Fund has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Aquila Tax-free Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aquila Tax-free
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aquila Tax Free. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Aquila Tax-free's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Aquila Tax-free Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aquila Tax-free is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aquila Tax-free's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aquila Tax Free Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aquila Tax-free within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.0024 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.77 |
Aquila Tax-free Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Aquila Tax-free for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Aquila Tax Free can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Aquila Tax Free generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Aquila Tax Free holds about 5.02% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Aquila Tax-free Technical Analysis
Aquila Tax-free's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aquila Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aquila Tax Free Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aquila Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aquila Tax-free Predictive Forecast Models
Aquila Tax-free's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aquila Tax-free's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aquila Tax-free's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Aquila Tax Free
Checking the ongoing alerts about Aquila Tax-free for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Aquila Tax Free help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Aquila Tax Free generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The fund generated three year return of -1.0% | |
| Aquila Tax Free holds about 5.02% of its assets under management (AUM) in cash |
Check out Aquila Tax-free Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Aquila Tax-free Correlation, Aquila Tax-free Hype Analysis, Aquila Tax-free Volatility, Aquila Tax-free History as well as Aquila Tax-free Performance. Note that the Aquila Tax Free information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Aquila Tax-free's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Performance Analysis module to check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation.