Churchill Downs Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 119.93
| CHDN Stock | USD 129.00 1.14 0.88% |
Closest to current price Churchill long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
Churchill |
Churchill Downs Target Price Odds to finish over 119.93
The tendency of Churchill Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 119.93 in 90 days |
| 129.00 | 90 days | 119.93 | about 56.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Churchill Downs to stay above $ 119.93 in 90 days from now is about 56.28 (This Churchill Downs Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Churchill Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Churchill Downs rporated price to stay between $ 119.93 and its current price of $129.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 54.41 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.29 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Churchill Downs will likely underperform. Additionally Churchill Downs Incorporated has an alpha of 0.036, implying that it can generate a 0.036 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Churchill Downs Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Churchill Downs
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Churchill Downs rporated. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Churchill Downs' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Churchill Downs Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Churchill Downs is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Churchill Downs' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Churchill Downs Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Churchill Downs within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 4.05 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Churchill Downs Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Churchill Downs for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Churchill Downs rporated can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from salon.com: The 7 biggest takeaways from Broken Horses, the New York Times unsettling horse-racing expos |
Churchill Downs Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Churchill Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Churchill Downs' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Churchill Downs' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 76.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 144.5 M |
Churchill Downs Technical Analysis
Churchill Downs' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Churchill Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Churchill Downs Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Churchill Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Churchill Downs Predictive Forecast Models
Churchill Downs' time-series forecasting models is one of many Churchill Downs' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Churchill Downs' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Churchill Downs rporated
Checking the ongoing alerts about Churchill Downs for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Churchill Downs rporated help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from salon.com: The 7 biggest takeaways from Broken Horses, the New York Times unsettling horse-racing expos |
Check out Churchill Downs Backtesting, Churchill Downs Valuation, Churchill Downs Correlation, Churchill Downs Hype Analysis, Churchill Downs Volatility, Churchill Downs History as well as Churchill Downs Performance. Note that the Churchill Downs rporated information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Churchill Downs' statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Churchill Stock analysis
When running Churchill Downs' price analysis, check to measure Churchill Downs' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Churchill Downs is operating at the current time. Most of Churchill Downs' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Churchill Downs' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Churchill Downs' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Churchill Downs to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Churchill Downs' industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Churchill Downs. If investors know Churchill will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Churchill Downs listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.47) | Dividend Share 0.382 | Earnings Share 4.52 | Revenue Per Share 33.286 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.056 |
The market value of Churchill Downs rporated is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Churchill that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Churchill Downs' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Churchill Downs' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Churchill Downs' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Churchill Downs' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Churchill Downs' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Churchill Downs is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Churchill Downs' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.