BE Semiconductor (Netherlands) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 130.4
| BESI Stock | EUR 131.60 0.10 0.08% |
BESI |
BE Semiconductor Target Price Odds to finish below 130.4
The tendency of BESI Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 130.40 or more in 90 days |
| 131.60 | 90 days | 130.40 | about 13.09 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BE Semiconductor to drop to € 130.40 or more in 90 days from now is about 13.09 (This BE Semiconductor Industries probability density function shows the probability of BESI Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BE Semiconductor Ind price to stay between € 130.40 and its current price of €131.6 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.14 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon BE Semiconductor Industries has a beta of -0.12 suggesting as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding BE Semiconductor are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, BE Semiconductor Industries is likely to outperform the market. Additionally BE Semiconductor Industries has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. BE Semiconductor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BE Semiconductor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BE Semiconductor Ind. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BE Semiconductor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BE Semiconductor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BE Semiconductor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BE Semiconductor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BE Semiconductor Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BE Semiconductor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 12.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
BE Semiconductor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BE Semiconductor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BE Semiconductor Ind can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BE Semiconductor Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BE Semiconductor Ind has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
BE Semiconductor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BESI Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BE Semiconductor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BE Semiconductor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 78 M |
BE Semiconductor Technical Analysis
BE Semiconductor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BESI Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BE Semiconductor Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing BESI Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BE Semiconductor Predictive Forecast Models
BE Semiconductor's time-series forecasting models is one of many BE Semiconductor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BE Semiconductor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BE Semiconductor Ind
Checking the ongoing alerts about BE Semiconductor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BE Semiconductor Ind help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BE Semiconductor Ind generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BE Semiconductor Ind has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Over 78.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out BE Semiconductor Backtesting, BE Semiconductor Valuation, BE Semiconductor Correlation, BE Semiconductor Hype Analysis, BE Semiconductor Volatility, BE Semiconductor History as well as BE Semiconductor Performance. You can also try the Investing Opportunities module to build portfolios using our predefined set of ideas and optimize them against your investing preferences.
Complementary Tools for BESI Stock analysis
When running BE Semiconductor's price analysis, check to measure BE Semiconductor's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BE Semiconductor is operating at the current time. Most of BE Semiconductor's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BE Semiconductor's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BE Semiconductor's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BE Semiconductor to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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