Berkshire Hathaway (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 102.5
| BERK34 Stock | BRL 105.32 0.44 0.42% |
Berkshire |
Berkshire Hathaway Target Price Odds to finish over 102.5
The tendency of Berkshire Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above R$ 102.50 in 90 days |
| 105.32 | 90 days | 102.50 | about 58.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Berkshire Hathaway to stay above R$ 102.50 in 90 days from now is about 58.96 (This Berkshire Hathaway probability density function shows the probability of Berkshire Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Berkshire Hathaway price to stay between R$ 102.50 and its current price of R$105.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.71 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Berkshire Hathaway has a beta of 0.17 suggesting as returns on the market go up, Berkshire Hathaway average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Berkshire Hathaway will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Berkshire Hathaway has an alpha of 0.0737, implying that it can generate a 0.0737 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Berkshire Hathaway Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Berkshire Hathaway
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Berkshire Hathaway. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Berkshire Hathaway's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Berkshire Hathaway Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Berkshire Hathaway is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Berkshire Hathaway's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Berkshire Hathaway, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Berkshire Hathaway within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.07 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.17 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.01 |
Berkshire Hathaway Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Berkshire Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Berkshire Hathaway's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Berkshire Hathaway's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 88.2 B |
Berkshire Hathaway Technical Analysis
Berkshire Hathaway's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Berkshire Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Berkshire Hathaway. In general, you should focus on analyzing Berkshire Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Berkshire Hathaway Predictive Forecast Models
Berkshire Hathaway's time-series forecasting models is one of many Berkshire Hathaway's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Berkshire Hathaway's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Berkshire Hathaway in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Berkshire Hathaway's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Berkshire Hathaway options trading.
Check out Berkshire Hathaway Backtesting, Berkshire Hathaway Valuation, Berkshire Hathaway Correlation, Berkshire Hathaway Hype Analysis, Berkshire Hathaway Volatility, Berkshire Hathaway History as well as Berkshire Hathaway Performance. Note that the Berkshire Hathaway information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Berkshire Hathaway's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Odds Of Bankruptcy module to get analysis of equity chance of financial distress in the next 2 years.
Complementary Tools for Berkshire Stock analysis
When running Berkshire Hathaway's price analysis, check to measure Berkshire Hathaway's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Berkshire Hathaway is operating at the current time. Most of Berkshire Hathaway's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Berkshire Hathaway's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Berkshire Hathaway's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Berkshire Hathaway to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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