Basf Se Adr Stock Odds of Future OTC Stock Price Finishing Over 13.16
| BASFY Stock | USD 13.04 0.04 0.31% |
BASF |
BASF SE Target Price Odds to finish over 13.16
The tendency of BASF OTC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 13.16 or more in 90 days |
| 13.04 | 90 days | 13.16 | about 31.51 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BASF SE to move over $ 13.16 or more in 90 days from now is about 31.51 (This BASF SE ADR probability density function shows the probability of BASF OTC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BASF SE ADR price to stay between its current price of $ 13.04 and $ 13.16 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.26 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the otc stock has the beta coefficient of 1.26 suggesting as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BASF SE will likely underperform. Additionally BASF SE ADR has an alpha of 0.0969, implying that it can generate a 0.0969 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). BASF SE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BASF SE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BASF SE ADR. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the otc stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the otc stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BASF SE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BASF SE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BASF SE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BASF SE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BASF SE ADR, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BASF SE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.1 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.54 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
BASF SE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of BASF OTC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential BASF SE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. BASF SE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 918.5 M |
BASF SE Technical Analysis
BASF SE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BASF OTC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BASF SE ADR. In general, you should focus on analyzing BASF OTC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BASF SE Predictive Forecast Models
BASF SE's time-series forecasting models is one of many BASF SE's otc stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BASF SE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the otc stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards BASF SE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, BASF SE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from BASF SE options trading.
Check out BASF SE Backtesting, BASF SE Valuation, BASF SE Correlation, BASF SE Hype Analysis, BASF SE Volatility, BASF SE History as well as BASF SE Performance. Note that the BASF SE ADR information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other BASF SE's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Headlines Timeline module to stay connected to all market stories and filter out noise. Drill down to analyze hype elasticity.
Complementary Tools for BASF OTC Stock analysis
When running BASF SE's price analysis, check to measure BASF SE's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BASF SE is operating at the current time. Most of BASF SE's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BASF SE's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BASF SE's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BASF SE to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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