Astra Otoparts (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2040.0
| AUTO Stock | IDR 2,070 30.00 1.43% |
Astra |
Astra Otoparts Target Price Odds to finish over 2040.0
The tendency of Astra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 2,040 in 90 days |
| 2,070 | 90 days | 2,040 | under 95 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Astra Otoparts to stay above 2,040 in 90 days from now is under 95 (This Astra Otoparts Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Astra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Astra Otoparts Tbk price to stay between 2,040 and its current price of 2070.0 at the end of the 90-day period is under 4.
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Astra Otoparts has a beta of 0.0363. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Astra Otoparts average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Astra Otoparts Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Astra Otoparts Tbk has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Astra Otoparts Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Astra Otoparts
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Astra Otoparts Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Astra Otoparts' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Astra Otoparts Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Astra Otoparts is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Astra Otoparts' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Astra Otoparts Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Astra Otoparts within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.32 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 121.92 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.2 |
Astra Otoparts Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Astra Otoparts for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Astra Otoparts Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Astra Otoparts Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Astra Otoparts Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Astra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Astra Otoparts' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Astra Otoparts' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.8 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 T |
Astra Otoparts Technical Analysis
Astra Otoparts' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Astra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Astra Otoparts Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Astra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Astra Otoparts Predictive Forecast Models
Astra Otoparts' time-series forecasting models is one of many Astra Otoparts' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Astra Otoparts' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Astra Otoparts Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Astra Otoparts for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Astra Otoparts Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Astra Otoparts Tbk generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Check out Astra Otoparts Backtesting, Astra Otoparts Valuation, Astra Otoparts Correlation, Astra Otoparts Hype Analysis, Astra Otoparts Volatility, Astra Otoparts History as well as Astra Otoparts Performance. You can also try the CEOs Directory module to screen CEOs from public companies around the world.
Complementary Tools for Astra Stock analysis
When running Astra Otoparts' price analysis, check to measure Astra Otoparts' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Astra Otoparts is operating at the current time. Most of Astra Otoparts' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Astra Otoparts' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Astra Otoparts' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Astra Otoparts to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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