Auer Growth Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 16.18
| AUERX Fund | USD 16.65 0.07 0.42% |
Auer |
Auer Growth Target Price Odds to finish over 16.18
The tendency of Auer Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 16.18 in 90 days |
| 16.65 | 90 days | 16.18 | about 13.61 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Auer Growth to stay above $ 16.18 in 90 days from now is about 13.61 (This Auer Growth Fund probability density function shows the probability of Auer Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Auer Growth Fund price to stay between $ 16.18 and its current price of $16.65 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.44 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Auer Growth has a beta of 0.16. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Auer Growth average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Auer Growth Fund will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Auer Growth Fund has an alpha of 0.1612, implying that it can generate a 0.16 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Auer Growth Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Auer Growth
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Auer Growth Fund. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Auer Growth's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Auer Growth Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Auer Growth is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Auer Growth's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Auer Growth Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Auer Growth within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.16 |
Auer Growth Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Auer Growth for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Auer Growth Fund can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund holds 98.86% of its assets under management (AUM) in equities |
Auer Growth Technical Analysis
Auer Growth's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Auer Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Auer Growth Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Auer Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Auer Growth Predictive Forecast Models
Auer Growth's time-series forecasting models is one of many Auer Growth's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Auer Growth's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.