ASSA ABLOY (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 297.54
| ASSA-B Stock | SEK 316.60 2.70 0.86% |
ASSA |
ASSA ABLOY Target Price Odds to finish below 297.54
The tendency of ASSA Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to kr 297.54 or more in 90 days |
| 316.60 | 90 days | 297.54 | about 44.32 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of ASSA ABLOY to drop to kr 297.54 or more in 90 days from now is about 44.32 (This ASSA ABLOY AB probability density function shows the probability of ASSA Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of ASSA ABLOY AB price to stay between kr 297.54 and its current price of kr316.6 at the end of the 90-day period is about 53.07 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon ASSA ABLOY has a beta of 0.0216. This suggests as returns on the market go up, ASSA ABLOY average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding ASSA ABLOY AB will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally ASSA ABLOY AB has an alpha of 0.1508, implying that it can generate a 0.15 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). ASSA ABLOY Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for ASSA ABLOY
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as ASSA ABLOY AB. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of ASSA ABLOY's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
ASSA ABLOY Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. ASSA ABLOY is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the ASSA ABLOY's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold ASSA ABLOY AB, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of ASSA ABLOY within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.15 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 8.91 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
ASSA ABLOY Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of ASSA ABLOY for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for ASSA ABLOY AB can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has kr23.15 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company has accumulated 23.15 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 65.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. ASSA ABLOY AB has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASSA ABLOY until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASSA ABLOY's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASSA ABLOY AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASSA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASSA ABLOY's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 68.0% of ASSA ABLOY shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
ASSA ABLOY Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of ASSA Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential ASSA ABLOY's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. ASSA ABLOY's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3.4 B |
ASSA ABLOY Technical Analysis
ASSA ABLOY's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. ASSA Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of ASSA ABLOY AB. In general, you should focus on analyzing ASSA Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
ASSA ABLOY Predictive Forecast Models
ASSA ABLOY's time-series forecasting models is one of many ASSA ABLOY's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary ASSA ABLOY's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about ASSA ABLOY AB
Checking the ongoing alerts about ASSA ABLOY for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for ASSA ABLOY AB help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has kr23.15 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company has accumulated 23.15 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 65.0, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. ASSA ABLOY AB has a current ratio of 0.97, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist ASSA ABLOY until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, ASSA ABLOY's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like ASSA ABLOY AB sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for ASSA to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about ASSA ABLOY's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 68.0% of ASSA ABLOY shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out ASSA ABLOY Backtesting, ASSA ABLOY Valuation, ASSA ABLOY Correlation, ASSA ABLOY Hype Analysis, ASSA ABLOY Volatility, ASSA ABLOY History as well as ASSA ABLOY Performance. You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Complementary Tools for ASSA Stock analysis
When running ASSA ABLOY's price analysis, check to measure ASSA ABLOY's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy ASSA ABLOY is operating at the current time. Most of ASSA ABLOY's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of ASSA ABLOY's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move ASSA ABLOY's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of ASSA ABLOY to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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