Argo Group International Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 29.99
| ARGODelisted Stock | USD 29.99 0.01 0.03% |
Argo |
Argo Group Target Price Odds to finish below 29.99
The tendency of Argo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 29.99 | 90 days | 29.99 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Argo Group to move below current price in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Argo Group International probability density function shows the probability of Argo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Argo Group International has a beta of -0.011. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Argo Group are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Argo Group International is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Argo Group International has an alpha of 0.0053, implying that it can generate a 0.005305 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Argo Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Argo Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argo Group International. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Argo Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Argo Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Argo Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Argo Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Argo Group International, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Argo Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.31 |
Argo Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Argo Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Argo Group International can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Argo Group is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Argo Group has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company currently holds 399.1 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.36, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Argo Group International has a current ratio of 0.55, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Argo Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Argo Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Argo Group International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Argo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Argo Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (175.2 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (82.7 M). | |
| Over 100.0% of Argo Group shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Chubb Reports Next Week Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth |
Argo Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Argo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Argo Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Argo Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 35 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 50.2 M |
Argo Group Technical Analysis
Argo Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Argo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Argo Group International. In general, you should focus on analyzing Argo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Argo Group Predictive Forecast Models
Argo Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Argo Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Argo Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Argo Group International
Checking the ongoing alerts about Argo Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Argo Group International help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Argo Group is not yet fully synchronised with the market data | |
| Argo Group has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| The company currently holds 399.1 M in liabilities with Debt to Equity (D/E) ratio of 0.36, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Argo Group International has a current ratio of 0.55, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Debt can assist Argo Group until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Argo Group's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Argo Group International sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Argo to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Argo Group's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 1.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (175.2 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (82.7 M). | |
| Over 100.0% of Argo Group shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from zacks.com: Chubb Reports Next Week Wall Street Expects Earnings Growth |
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios. Also, note that the market value of any company could be tightly coupled with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in price. Note that the Argo Group International information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Argo Group's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Stock Tickers module to use high-impact, comprehensive, and customizable stock tickers that can be easily integrated to any websites.
Other Consideration for investing in Argo Stock
If you are still planning to invest in Argo Group International check if it may still be traded through OTC markets such as Pink Sheets or OTC Bulletin Board. You may also purchase it directly from the company, but this is not always possible and may require contacting the company directly. Please note that delisted stocks are often considered to be more risky investments, as they are no longer subject to the same regulatory and reporting requirements as listed stocks. Therefore, it is essential to carefully research the Argo Group's history and understand the potential risks before investing.
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