Africa Oil (Sweden) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 19.16
| AOI Stock | SEK 19.40 0.11 0.56% |
Africa |
Africa Oil Target Price Odds to finish over 19.16
The tendency of Africa Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above kr 19.16 in 90 days |
| 19.40 | 90 days | 19.16 | about 24.66 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Africa Oil to stay above kr 19.16 in 90 days from now is about 24.66 (This Africa Oil Corp probability density function shows the probability of Africa Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Africa Oil Corp price to stay between kr 19.16 and its current price of kr19.4 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.98 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Africa Oil Corp has a beta of -0.47. This suggests as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Africa Oil are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Africa Oil Corp is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Africa Oil Corp has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Africa Oil Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Africa Oil
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Africa Oil Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Africa Oil's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Africa Oil Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Africa Oil is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Africa Oil's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Africa Oil Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Africa Oil within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.0078 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | -0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.43 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Africa Oil Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Africa Oil for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Africa Oil Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Africa Oil Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Africa Oil Corp has accumulated about 355.23 M in cash with (10.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.75. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Africa Oil Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Africa Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Africa Oil's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Africa Oil's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 477.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 58.5 M |
Africa Oil Technical Analysis
Africa Oil's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Africa Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Africa Oil Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Africa Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Africa Oil Predictive Forecast Models
Africa Oil's time-series forecasting models is one of many Africa Oil's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Africa Oil's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Africa Oil Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Africa Oil for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Africa Oil Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Africa Oil Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Africa Oil Corp has accumulated about 355.23 M in cash with (10.21 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.75. | |
| Roughly 16.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Africa Oil Backtesting, Africa Oil Valuation, Africa Oil Correlation, Africa Oil Hype Analysis, Africa Oil Volatility, Africa Oil History as well as Africa Oil Performance. You can also try the Money Managers module to screen money managers from public funds and ETFs managed around the world.
Complementary Tools for Africa Stock analysis
When running Africa Oil's price analysis, check to measure Africa Oil's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Africa Oil is operating at the current time. Most of Africa Oil's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Africa Oil's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Africa Oil's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Africa Oil to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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