Alkindo Naratama (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 782.0
| ALDO Stock | IDR 870.00 5.00 0.57% |
Alkindo |
Alkindo Naratama Target Price Odds to finish below 782.0
The tendency of Alkindo Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 782.00 or more in 90 days |
| 870.00 | 90 days | 782.00 | about 59.5 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Alkindo Naratama to drop to 782.00 or more in 90 days from now is about 59.5 (This Alkindo Naratama Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Alkindo Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Alkindo Naratama Tbk price to stay between 782.00 and its current price of 870.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.08 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Alkindo Naratama has a beta of 0.47. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Alkindo Naratama average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Alkindo Naratama Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Alkindo Naratama Tbk has an alpha of 0.3763, implying that it can generate a 0.38 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Alkindo Naratama Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Alkindo Naratama
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Alkindo Naratama Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Alkindo Naratama's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Alkindo Naratama Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Alkindo Naratama is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Alkindo Naratama's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Alkindo Naratama Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Alkindo Naratama within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.38 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.47 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 81.48 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Alkindo Naratama Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Alkindo Naratama for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Alkindo Naratama Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Alkindo Naratama Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Alkindo Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Alkindo Naratama's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Alkindo Naratama's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.3 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 96.2 B |
Alkindo Naratama Technical Analysis
Alkindo Naratama's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Alkindo Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Alkindo Naratama Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Alkindo Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Alkindo Naratama Predictive Forecast Models
Alkindo Naratama's time-series forecasting models is one of many Alkindo Naratama's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Alkindo Naratama's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Alkindo Naratama Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Alkindo Naratama for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Alkindo Naratama Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| About 76.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Check out Alkindo Naratama Backtesting, Alkindo Naratama Valuation, Alkindo Naratama Correlation, Alkindo Naratama Hype Analysis, Alkindo Naratama Volatility, Alkindo Naratama History as well as Alkindo Naratama Performance. You can also try the Portfolio File Import module to quickly import all of your third-party portfolios from your local drive in csv format.
Complementary Tools for Alkindo Stock analysis
When running Alkindo Naratama's price analysis, check to measure Alkindo Naratama's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Alkindo Naratama is operating at the current time. Most of Alkindo Naratama's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Alkindo Naratama's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Alkindo Naratama's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Alkindo Naratama to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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