Argha Karya (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 572.21
| AKPI Stock | IDR 645.00 25.00 4.03% |
Argha |
Argha Karya Target Price Odds to finish below 572.21
The tendency of Argha Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 572.21 or more in 90 days |
| 645.00 | 90 days | 572.21 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Argha Karya to drop to 572.21 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This Argha Karya Prima probability density function shows the probability of Argha Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Argha Karya Prima price to stay between 572.21 and its current price of 645.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 29.4 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Argha Karya has a beta of 0.36. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Argha Karya average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Argha Karya Prima will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Argha Karya Prima has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Argha Karya Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Argha Karya
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Argha Karya Prima. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Argha Karya's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Argha Karya Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Argha Karya is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Argha Karya's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Argha Karya Prima, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Argha Karya within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.15 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.36 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 51.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Argha Karya Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Argha Karya for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Argha Karya Prima can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Argha Karya Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Argha Karya Prima has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Argha Karya generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Argha Karya Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Argha Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Argha Karya's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Argha Karya's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 612.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 36.7 B |
Argha Karya Technical Analysis
Argha Karya's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Argha Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Argha Karya Prima. In general, you should focus on analyzing Argha Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Argha Karya Predictive Forecast Models
Argha Karya's time-series forecasting models is one of many Argha Karya's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Argha Karya's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Argha Karya Prima
Checking the ongoing alerts about Argha Karya for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Argha Karya Prima help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Argha Karya Prima generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Argha Karya Prima has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Argha Karya generates negative cash flow from operations | |
| About 83.0% of the company shares are held by company insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Argha Stock
Argha Karya financial ratios help investors to determine whether Argha Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Argha with respect to the benefits of owning Argha Karya security.