American High Income Municipal Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 14.87
| AHMFX Fund | USD 14.94 0.06 0.40% |
American |
American High-income Target Price Odds to finish over 14.87
The tendency of American Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 14.87 in 90 days |
| 14.94 | 90 days | 14.87 | about 59.06 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of American High-income to stay above $ 14.87 in 90 days from now is about 59.06 (This American High Income Municipal probability density function shows the probability of American Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of American High Income price to stay between $ 14.87 and its current price of $14.94 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.72 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon American High-income has a beta of 0.1. This suggests as returns on the market go up, American High-income average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding American High Income Municipal will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally American High Income Municipal has an alpha of 0.0031, implying that it can generate a 0.003125 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). American High-income Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for American High-income
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as American High Income. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of American High-income's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
American High-income Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. American High-income is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the American High-income's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold American High Income Municipal, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of American High-income within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.09 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.16 |
American High-income Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of American High-income for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for American High Income can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| American High Income holds about 97.52% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
American High-income Technical Analysis
American High-income's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. American Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of American High Income Municipal. In general, you should focus on analyzing American Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
American High-income Predictive Forecast Models
American High-income's time-series forecasting models is one of many American High-income's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary American High-income's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about American High Income
Checking the ongoing alerts about American High-income for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for American High Income help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund generated three year return of 0.0% | |
| American High Income holds about 97.52% of its assets under management (AUM) in fixed income securities |
Check out American High-income Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, American High-income Correlation, American High-income Hype Analysis, American High-income Volatility, American High-income History as well as American High-income Performance. Note that the American High Income information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other American High-income's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Insider Screener module to find insiders across different sectors to evaluate their impact on performance.