Assured Guaranty Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 77.44
| AGO Stock | USD 75.94 0.44 0.58% |
Assured |
Assured Guaranty Target Price Odds to finish over 77.44
The tendency of Assured Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 77.44 or more in 90 days |
| 75.94 | 90 days | 77.44 | about 83.04 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Assured Guaranty to move over $ 77.44 or more in 90 days from now is about 83.04 (This Assured Guaranty probability density function shows the probability of Assured Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Assured Guaranty price to stay between its current price of $ 75.94 and $ 77.44 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.65 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Assured Guaranty has a beta of 0.11. This suggests as returns on the market go up, Assured Guaranty average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Assured Guaranty will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Assured Guaranty has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. Assured Guaranty Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Assured Guaranty
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Assured Guaranty. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Assured Guaranty's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Assured Guaranty Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Assured Guaranty is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Assured Guaranty's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Assured Guaranty, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Assured Guaranty within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 5.89 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.12 |
Assured Guaranty Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Assured Guaranty for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Assured Guaranty can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Assured Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 1.69 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Assured Guaranty until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Assured Guaranty's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Assured Guaranty sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Assured to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Assured Guaranty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 94.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Assured Guaranty Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Assured Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Assured Guaranty's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Assured Guaranty's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 59.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 8.1 B |
Assured Guaranty Technical Analysis
Assured Guaranty's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Assured Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Assured Guaranty. In general, you should focus on analyzing Assured Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Assured Guaranty Predictive Forecast Models
Assured Guaranty's time-series forecasting models is one of many Assured Guaranty's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Assured Guaranty's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Assured Guaranty
Checking the ongoing alerts about Assured Guaranty for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Assured Guaranty help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Assured Guaranty generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company has 1.69 B in debt with debt to equity (D/E) ratio of 0.33, which is OK given its current industry classification. Assured Guaranty has a current ratio of 0.79, suggesting that it has not enough short term capital to pay financial commitments when the payables are due. Debt can assist Assured Guaranty until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Assured Guaranty's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Assured Guaranty sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Assured to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Assured Guaranty's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| Over 94.0% of Assured Guaranty shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies |
Check out Assured Guaranty Backtesting, Assured Guaranty Valuation, Assured Guaranty Correlation, Assured Guaranty Hype Analysis, Assured Guaranty Volatility, Assured Guaranty History as well as Assured Guaranty Performance. To learn how to invest in Assured Stock, please use our How to Invest in Assured Guaranty guide.Note that the Assured Guaranty information on this page should be used as a complementary analysis to other Assured Guaranty's statistical models used to find the right mix of equity instruments to add to your existing portfolios or create a brand new portfolio. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Complementary Tools for Assured Stock analysis
When running Assured Guaranty's price analysis, check to measure Assured Guaranty's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Assured Guaranty is operating at the current time. Most of Assured Guaranty's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Assured Guaranty's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Assured Guaranty's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Assured Guaranty to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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Is Assured Guaranty's industry expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Assured Guaranty. If investors know Assured will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Assured Guaranty listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
The market value of Assured Guaranty is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Assured that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Assured Guaranty's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Assured Guaranty's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Assured Guaranty's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Assured Guaranty's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Assured Guaranty's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Assured Guaranty is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Assured Guaranty's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.