Aercap Holdings Nv Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 81.0
| AER Stock | USD 92.12 1.04 1.12% |
Closest to current price AerCap long CALL Option Payoff at Expiration
AerCap |
AerCap Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 81.0
The tendency of AerCap Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 81.00 in 90 days |
| 92.12 | 90 days | 81.00 | about 92.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of AerCap Holdings to stay above $ 81.00 in 90 days from now is about 92.01 (This AerCap Holdings NV probability density function shows the probability of AerCap Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AerCap Holdings NV price to stay between $ 81.00 and its current price of $92.12 at the end of the 90-day period is about 84.9 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.12 . This suggests AerCap Holdings NV market returns are sensible to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, AerCap Holdings is expected to follow. Additionally AerCap Holdings NV has an alpha of 0.2567, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over NYSE Composite after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). AerCap Holdings Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for AerCap Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AerCap Holdings NV. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of AerCap Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
AerCap Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. AerCap Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the AerCap Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AerCap Holdings NV, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of AerCap Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | 0.26 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.12 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 3.87 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.20 |
AerCap Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of AerCap Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for AerCap Holdings NV can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| AerCap Holdings NV is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aercap Holdings N.V. Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue |
AerCap Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of AerCap Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential AerCap Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. AerCap Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 227.7 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.8 B |
AerCap Holdings Technical Analysis
AerCap Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. AerCap Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AerCap Holdings NV. In general, you should focus on analyzing AerCap Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
AerCap Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
AerCap Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many AerCap Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary AerCap Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about AerCap Holdings NV
Checking the ongoing alerts about AerCap Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for AerCap Holdings NV help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| AerCap Holdings NV is unlikely to experience financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Aercap Holdings N.V. Hit a 52 Week High, Can the Run Continue |
Additional Tools for AerCap Stock Analysis
When running AerCap Holdings' price analysis, check to measure AerCap Holdings' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy AerCap Holdings is operating at the current time. Most of AerCap Holdings' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of AerCap Holdings' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move AerCap Holdings' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of AerCap Holdings to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.