BIRKS GROUP (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 2.46
| 2BG Stock | EUR 2.34 0.08 3.31% |
BIRKS |
BIRKS GROUP Target Price Odds to finish over 2.46
The tendency of BIRKS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over € 2.46 or more in 90 days |
| 2.34 | 90 days | 2.46 | about 89.14 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of BIRKS GROUP to move over € 2.46 or more in 90 days from now is about 89.14 (This BIRKS GROUP INC probability density function shows the probability of BIRKS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of BIRKS GROUP INC price to stay between its current price of € 2.34 and € 2.46 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.04 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.16 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, BIRKS GROUP will likely underperform. Additionally BIRKS GROUP INC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the NYSE Composite. BIRKS GROUP Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for BIRKS GROUP
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as BIRKS GROUP INC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of BIRKS GROUP's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
BIRKS GROUP Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. BIRKS GROUP is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the BIRKS GROUP's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold BIRKS GROUP INC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of BIRKS GROUP within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over NYSE Composite | -0.59 | |
β | Beta against NYSE Composite | 1.16 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.47 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
BIRKS GROUP Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of BIRKS GROUP for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for BIRKS GROUP INC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| BIRKS GROUP INC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 176.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (18.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 76.22 M. | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has accumulated about 1.18 M in cash with (4.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.07. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
BIRKS GROUP Technical Analysis
BIRKS GROUP's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. BIRKS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of BIRKS GROUP INC. In general, you should focus on analyzing BIRKS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
BIRKS GROUP Predictive Forecast Models
BIRKS GROUP's time-series forecasting models is one of many BIRKS GROUP's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary BIRKS GROUP's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about BIRKS GROUP INC
Checking the ongoing alerts about BIRKS GROUP for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for BIRKS GROUP INC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| BIRKS GROUP INC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| The company reported the revenue of 176.77 M. Net Loss for the year was (18.3 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 76.22 M. | |
| BIRKS GROUP INC has accumulated about 1.18 M in cash with (4.72 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.07. | |
| Roughly 64.0% of the company shares are owned by insiders or employees |
Check out BIRKS GROUP Backtesting, BIRKS GROUP Valuation, BIRKS GROUP Correlation, BIRKS GROUP Hype Analysis, BIRKS GROUP Volatility, BIRKS GROUP History as well as BIRKS GROUP Performance. For more detail on how to invest in BIRKS Stock please use our How to Invest in BIRKS GROUP guide.You can also try the Bonds Directory module to find actively traded corporate debentures issued by US companies.
Complementary Tools for BIRKS Stock analysis
When running BIRKS GROUP's price analysis, check to measure BIRKS GROUP's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy BIRKS GROUP is operating at the current time. Most of BIRKS GROUP's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of BIRKS GROUP's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move BIRKS GROUP's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of BIRKS GROUP to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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